Brazil ended January 2025 with $328,3 billion in international reserves, almost all of which were invested in dollar-denominated securities, according to the Central Bank's statistical report. These reserves act as insurance, as they allow it to honor external commitments and provide peace of mind to the market in times of turbulence.

Behind the scenes in Brasília, however, an old question gained strength: to what extent does concentrating more than 90% of these reserves in fiat currencies make sense at a time when the market value of all cryptocurrencies once again touched $3 trillion in March?

The preliminary response came in the form of a bill, but the announcement has already fueled the appetite of those researching the Cryptocurrency pre-launch in 2025, in a clear attempt to anticipate trends that could gain even more momentum if institutional demand grows.

What does Bill 4501/24 propose and why does it affect the market?

Presented by congressman Eros Biondini (PL-MG), the text of PL 4501/24 authorizes the Central Bank, in partnership with the Ministry of Finance, to allocate up to 5% of reserves to the gradual purchase of Bitcoins, under strict custody rules in “cold wallets”, blockchain auditing and biannual reports to the National Congress.

It is not about replacing the dollar, but about creating an additional, and also symbolic, buffer to show that the country is following the digitalization of finance. If it becomes law, RESBit will transform the Brazilian Central Bank into one of the largest state holders of Bitcoin outside the United States.

Bringing it closer to nations such as El Salvador and, on a much smaller scale, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates, which are already testing similar initiatives. Although the 5% limit may seem modest, it currently amounts to something close to $16 billion, a volume sufficient to stir up short-term liquidity and send a message to the global market.

Proponents of the proposal argue that the negative correlation seen between Bitcoin and the dollar index would create room to cushion exchange rate shocks. There is also the argument for the tokenization of real assets, a trend driven by large Brazilian banks themselves, and the prospect of using part of these Bitcoins as collateral for Drex.

On the other hand, public debt managers remember the volatility. After flirting with $68 thousand dollars in 2021, Bitcoin fell more than 50% in 2022, only to break the $89 thousand dollar level in the first quarter of 2025. Economist Henrique Valentim, from UFSC, commented on this.

For him, diversification makes sense, but timing matters; buying at peaks of euphoria can erode profitability and worsen the perception of sovereign risk. He therefore suggests that any acquisitions follow countercyclical rules similar to those used by the Treasury when buying back foreign bonds.

Impacts on the Brazilian ecosystem

Even a small institutional allocation tends to legitimize the asset class and, by extension, encourage local companies to seek capital in blockchain. This reputational effect explains why so many Brazilian crypto startups, from tokenization to remittance fintechs, attend each session of the Chamber's Science and Technology Committee.

For João Moreira, CEO of the Santa Catarina-based exchange BlueWallet, when the state makes it clear that it accepts exposure to crypto, it also signals that regulators will have to move at the same speed. In other words, projects that plan to open public sales in 2025 gain an extra argument to attract developers, partners and users.

But while volatility is undeniable, cyber risk is even more concrete. The bill requires the implementation of artificial intelligence to monitor blocks and transactions, as well as safeguards against hacking. The Central Bank's IT director, Ângela Fialho, spoke about this recently at a public hearing.

She commented that any move in this direction will undergo resilience tests ranging from pen-testing to simulation of power grid outages, but avoided predicting deadlines. The decentralized nature of the blockchain also weighs in. Unlike gold or Treasuries, Bitcoin does not yield a coupon.

Therefore, this will require adjustments to the calculation of the liquidity reserve load. To resolve part of this friction, Treasury technicians are studying the use of covered-call strategies in derivatives listed on the Chicago CME, in order to transform part of the “inert asset” into cash flow, an idea that, for now, has not been agreed upon.

A processing of PL 4501/24 It will be finalized in four committees, but it can go to the Plenary if 52 deputies request it. Meanwhile, the banking lobby is focusing its fire on the wording of the article that links the purchase of Bitcoins to the eventual issuance of a national stablecoin. Fintechs are pushing for the 5% ceiling to become the floor for review in five years.