What strategies to use when betting on Brazil in the FIFA World Cup

The FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious football event in the world, is closely linked to the world of sports betting. This global sporting phenomenon, held every four years, captivates fans and bettors alike. When betting on such a big event, it is important to create a strategy and here are some tips to help you:

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Manage your budget

Set a clear amount of money you want to bet and never exceed it. An important rule to remember is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. 

Divide the budget into smaller portions, each portion for a single bet. Betting everything on a single bet is not a good idea. After all, no matter how good your strategy is and how well you have researched football players, betting still depends on luck to some extent. 

Additionally, keep a record of all your bets to track your performance and find patterns in your betting strategy. Keeping a betting diary can be helpful. If you analyze your bets over time and discover that you are losing more than you are winning, it is essential to have the discipline to take a break or reduce your betting activity until you are back in control. Managing your budget responsibly is the best way to enjoy the FIFA World Cup betting experience without risking your finances. 

Use the Kelly criterion

Developed by John L. Kelly Jr. In the 1950s, the Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula and strategy used for bankroll management. Essentially, it is a method of determining the ideal size of your bets in order to minimize your risks and maximize your winnings. To use it, you need to know the odds of a bet and your own estimate of the chance of winning. The formula then suggests the percentage of your bankroll that should be wagered.

The formula is f* = (bp - q) / b

f is the fraction of your total betting budget
b is the probability given by the bookmaker you use
p is the probability of victory (how possible YOU think it is for Brazil to win the match)
q is the probability of losing (which is 1 - p)

Although it seems complicated, it really isn't. Let's look at an example:

Let's say you are considering a bet with odds of 2,0 (money tied) and you believe there is a 60% chance of winning the bet (p = 0,60). Using the formula:

f* = ((2.0 * 0.60) - (1 - 0.60)) / 2.0
f* = (1.20 - 0.40) / 2.0
f* = 0.80 / 2.0
f* = 0.40

According to the Kelly Criterion, you should bet 40% of your bankroll on this bet to maximize your chances of success.

Choose your bookmaker carefully

Brazil is a powerhouse in international football. Sport is a big part of Brazilian culture and the World Cup is a high-stakes event where emotions run high.

A good bookmaker guarantees fair play, punctual payouts and competitive odds, which, as we saw above, is essential. Furthermore, reputable bookmakers, such as Betwinner, for example, offer a wide range of betting options and markets specific to Brazil's performance, so it is easy to adapt bets to the team's strengths and weaknesses. . Machete download Betwinner app and enjoy what they have to offer!


In short, having a well-planned strategy is the key to long-term success. Properly managing your budget ensures that you can enjoy betting without compromising your financial stability. The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the right bet size to maximize returns. Additionally, selecting a reputable bookmaker is key to ensuring fair play and competitive odds, especially when betting on important events like the FIFA World Cup.


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